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Industry News
04
2023
Looking Forward to the First Quarter Report of the Home Appliance Industry: Domestic demand shows a weak recovery, and some companies are expected to exceed expectations
The overall domestic demand in the Q1 home appliance sector showed a weak recovery, and the continued destocking overseas led to weak exports. The overall performance of real estate completion and second-hand housing data is relatively weak, resulting in a weak recovery trend in most home appliance category terminals in Q1 2023. Meanwhile, exports are still affected by factors such as overseas destocking, resulting in overall weak performance. 白电板块,空调出货端迎来改善,整体出口压力仍在。零售端,1-2月空冰洗线上销量同比+23.8%/-2.0%/-9.3%;线下同比+0.2%/-9.3%/-16.8%(奥维数据)。考虑到疫情对发货端的影响,我们将12月至2月家空内销出货结合起来看(产业在线数据),累计同比仍+10.5%,结合3月排产数据预计23Q1空调内销出货同比+17%(参考Q4同比-5%),说明内销出货确实迎来改善;出口方面,Q1渠道库存带给出口企业的压力仍在,但排产预期降幅有所收窄,说明出口企业对未来判断更乐观。预计板块Q1营收增速有望回升,增速区间+0%至5%,业绩端,各企业盈利能力依旧分化,且22Q1整体基数较高,预计+5至10%。
Copper prices may rise to a range of 70000-73000 yuan/ton without changing the inventory structure
1. Macro. On the overseas side, the "sequelae" of the Federal Reserve's continuous and rapid interest rate hikes have begun to emerge, and small and medium-sized banks in Europe and America have successively experienced run risks. Although the event has eased with the rapid provision of liquidity and continuous mediation by central banks and governments, the potential "black swan" risk cannot be effectively ruled out. In addition, under the control of inflation and potential financial risks, the Federal Reserve's policy has fallen into a dilemma, and the market is betting on the Fed's policy shift, Risk appetite has also rapidly rebounded, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index. However, from the perspective of high interest rate environments and potential financial risks, overseas economic or demand prospects cannot become a factor supporting the rise of bulk commodities; On the domestic side, economic recovery is still ongoing, and the market recovery is relatively slow. In addition, during the traditional peak season in China, policy support has begun to slow down, and demand may always face a lukewarm and lukewarm situation under the combination of "stable growth" and "structural adjustment".
Inflation expectations fluctuate, copper prices remain stagnant at high levels
With the gradual easing of bank incidents in Europe and America, market sentiment has gradually recovered, but market recognition for high prices above 70000 yuan is still not high. From overseas, European and American banks are temporarily on hold, but they still need to remain vigilant about their banking and financial system issues. Biden has made every effort to use existing institutions to solve the banking crisis, but the crisis is "not over".
Refrigerant: R32 is firm and rising!
Refrigerant Last week, the cost of refrigerants slightly decreased, and market prices remained stable. The average price of R22 is 20000 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week; The mainstream transaction price of R32 is based on 14929 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.0% compared to last week; The average price of R125 is 26000 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week; The average price of R134a is 24000 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week.
Release of the first national standard in the field of cold chain logistics for fresh edible mushrooms
Recently, the national standard "GB/T 42482-2023 Technical Specifications for Packaging, Storage, and Cold Chain Transportation of Fresh Tremella" led by the Agricultural Engineering Technology Research Institute of Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences has been approved and released. This is the first national standard in the field of cold chain logistics for fresh edible mushrooms in China, filling the gap in national standards for fresh tremella preservation in China.
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