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Wenzhou Qinhua Refrigeration Equipment Co., Ltd.
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06

2023

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04

Inflation expectations fluctuate, copper prices remain stagnant at high levels

With the gradual easing of bank incidents in Europe and America, market sentiment has gradually recovered, but market recognition for high prices above 70000 yuan is still not high.
From overseas, European and American banks are temporarily on hold, but they still need to remain vigilant about their banking and financial system issues. Biden has made every effort to use existing institutions to solve the banking crisis, but the crisis is "not over". Multiple countries have announced voluntary oil production cuts, which may impact inflation expectations in Europe and America, thereby affecting copper valuation benchmarks. Trump has been criminally charged and is expected to appear in court in New York on the 4th. This week, focus on US non farm data. Domestically speaking, China's official manufacturing PMI reached 51.9 in March, while non manufacturing PMI reached a 12 year high. The PMI of Caixin Manufacturing in March was 50, lower than the expected 51.4. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide decreased by 22.9% year-on-year due to multiple factors such as quantity and price.
In terms of spot goods, the inventory of the previous period decreased slightly to 157000 tons, and the speed of destocking significantly slowed down. LME inventory decreased to 65000 tons, but overall inventory remains low. It has been noted that there has been a slowdown or even a slight rebound in the removal of domestic social treasury, which may be related to the brief opening of the copper import window outside the border. On the morning of March 30th, the CSPT team held a general manager's office meeting for the first quarter of 2023 in Shanghai, and determined that the spot copper concentrate procurement guidance processing fee for the second quarter of 2023 would be $90/ton and 9.0 cents per pound, a decrease of $3/ton and 0.3 cents per pound compared to the spot copper concentrate procurement guidance processing fee of $93/ton and 93 cents per pound in the first quarter of 2023, and higher than the benchmark of $88/ton for copper concentrate long-term processing in 2023. Technically speaking, copper prices are expected to settle at a high level, and this week they may challenge a space of over 70000 yuan.

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